Blowouts in Sandy Grassland Areas: Analysis and Prediction of Spatial Patterns and Landscape Changes

Abstract Blowouts are a common type of wind-eroded landform found in sandy and desertified areas. They also represent a major degradative surface process affecting grassland ecosystems. Blowouts exacerbate changes in surface morphology through their effects on other surface phenomena including vegetation. This paper interprets sandy grassland blowouts occurring in Xilingol League, Inner Mongolia, using 3S extraction and high-resolution remote sensing image data from 1962, 1972, 1982, 2013, 2018 and 2023. The Landscape Pattern Index method and Fuzzy Land Use Simulation (FLUS) modelling applied to changes over the last six decades provided spatial evolution parameters for predicting future blowout distributions. Results showed that blowouts affecting the Xilingol grassland area increased by 16.81% over the past 60 years. The patch density (PD) increased by 0.9 hm⁻ ². The mean proximity index (PROX_MN) and mean Euclidean nearest neighbour distance (ENN_MN) showed a tendency to decrease and then increase indicating initial expansion and then merging of adjacent blowouts to create the present landscape. The FLUS model used ten factors to predict changes in blowout distributions from 2018 to 2033. Factors included digital elevation model (DEM), slope, aspect, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, population density, real GDP, distance to water, and distance to impervious surfaces. It was found that grassland area decreased by 6217.12 hm² and blowout area decreased by 102.91 hm². Results of this study can expand understanding of blowout morphodynamics in ecologically sensitive areas.