Expectedness of Human Comfort Index of Heat Wave Events over Bangladesh Using WRF-ARW and RayMan-Pro Model

Abstract Abstract: High-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW V4.4.2) model is used for the simulation of heat wave events that occurred during 19–26 May 2017, 12–19 May 2020 and 19–26 May 2021. So, an attempt has been made for simulating the extreme temperature conditions over Bangladesh using the WRF model and then an effort has been done to construct the Human Comfort Index (HCI) by the RayMan-Pro model. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCAR) final reanalysis (FNL) data are used as initial and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) which are updated at three hourly intervals. A single domain with a 10 km horizontal resolution along with a vertical level of up to 100 hPa is used. The WRF model runs for 168 hr. which is treated as 7 days with Kesler microphysics (MP) schemes, YSU PBL schemes and Kain-Fritsch (KF) cumulus schemes, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model for longwave radiation and Dudhia scheme for short wave radiation. In this study, HW events are simulated using WRF model and thermos-physiologically human comfort indexes (HCI) such as Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), and Standard Effective Temperature (SET*) are analyzed by RayMan-Pro model at 34 stations in Bangladesh during pre-monsoon season. In this research, an attempt has also been made to study the HW scenario, its characteristics and predictability for anticipatory actions over Bangladesh. The maximum observed (simulated) Temperatures (T2) of Khulna, Satkhira, Mongla, Rajshahi and Jashore stations are close to each other so, the WRF model performance is very well for predicting T2. The maximum observed (simulated) PET and SET* are obtained more than 41 ̊C which is extremely hot conditions so, to compute HCI over Bangladesh, the RayMan-Pro model performs real scenario of adequately.