Integrated Forecasting and Protection Strategy for Countering Illegal Elephant Poaching: A Grey Model and ARIMA Approach

This paper presents a comprehensive approach to forecasting and mitigating illegal elephant poaching. Initially, a GM(1,1) grey prediction model is established to forecast the incidence of elephant poaching over the next five years, highlighting the urgency and necessity of addressing this issue. Subsequently, a detailed protection strategy is formulated to safeguard elephants from illegal hunting, accompanied by the visualization of the proposed measures using word cloud representations. Finally, assuming the successful implementation of the project over the next five years, an ARIMA time series prediction model is constructed to forecast the illegal killing of wild elephants, providing a comparative analysis with unprotected forecasts to underscore the imperative nature of the project.