Unravelling the Brexit-COVID-19 Nexus: Assessing the Decline of EU Student Applications into UK Universities

Whilst the numbers of international students attending UK universities has been increasing in recent years, the 2021/22 and 2022/23 academic years saw a decline in applications from EU domiciled students. This decline is hypothesised to represent a direct result of the end of free movement due to the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union (EU), with varying impacts across institutions and study subjects. However, the extent of this decline remains to be estimated and disentangled from the impacts of the COVID-19. Using difference-in-differences in a hierarchical regression framework and Universities and Colleges Admissions Service (UCAS) data, we aim to quantify the decline in the number of student applications post-Brexit. We find evidence of an overall decline of 65 per cent in the 2021 academic year in successful applications from EU students. We note that this decline is more severe for non-Russell Group institutions, and for Health and Life Sciences and Arts and Languages. Further, we explore the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of Brexit across EU countries of origin; seeing the greatest effects for Poland and Germany but that this varies depending on institution type and subject. We are also able to show that higher rates of COVID-19 stringency in the country of origin led to greater applications for UK HE. Our results hold importance for government and institutional policymakers seeking to understand where losses are occurring and how international students respond to external shocks and policy changes. By quantifying the distinct impacts of Brexit and COVID-19, our study offers valuable insights to guide strategic interventions aimed at sustaining the UK’s attractiveness as a destination for international students.