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The accuracy of the forecasting method and its prior estimation when predicting changes in the error of the working measurement standard are one of the key issues. In the course of studying these issues, a number of components of the forecasting error were assessed, and various methods and mathematical models of forecasting were compared. A comparative analysis showed that the studied mathematical model for individual forecasting of changes in the error of a working standard available at «Mathematical model for predicting changes in the value of the critical component of the error of the working measurement standard of the unit of magnitude taking into account prior information» has higher accuracy in comparison with the considered known forecasting methods. The estimates of the parameters of the forecasting function obtained with the application of the model under consideration available at «Determination of parameters for metrological maintenance of measuring instruments by the technical and economic criterion», using the expressions of the transition to forecasting the probability of metrological serviceability of the working measurement standard, specific costs for metrological maintenance, and damage from the use of the working measurement standard in the state of metrological failure, allow to substantially increase the validity of decisions to refine the value of the interval between the certification of the working standard, which is initially established (within the framework of the ITCM).
Новиков et al. (2024) studied this question.