Empirical analysis demonstrates convertible bonds lead equities across market indices and individual assets, suggesting trading mechanisms drive informational leadership.
Based on minute-level high-frequency data, this paper examines the lead-lag relationship between convertible bonds and the stock market by using the thermal optimal path method. It is found that convertible bonds lead the stock market at both index and individual levels. Regression analysis shows that the unique 'T + 0' trading mechanism and wider price limits of convertible bonds significantly contribute to their leading effect. Additional analysis shows that the leading effect is significantly reduced when the price limit of convertible bond market is narrowed. Our findings can potentially help regulators to improve and develop the convertible bond market, and also be of value to investors in developing trading strategies.
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Jin et al. (2024) studied this question.
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