University Student Enrollments during the next Decade

According to the US Census, the number of births in the United States during 2008 dropped by more than 68,000 over the previous year. This trend continued for the next six years through 2014. Starting in the fall of 2026, those born during these years will be 18 years old. For the seven-year period starting in 2026 through 3031, there will be cumulatively nearly 400,000 fewer high school graduates and potentially 240,000 fewer college freshmen for the period, about ½ percent per year. During 2023, economic inflation, concern about student debt and employee shortages could further affect university enrollments in the United States. The full effects of inflation in the United States might be benchmarked by mortgage rates which are expected to rise to nearly 7% by the end of 2023, up from 4% in 2019. In 2022, President Biden's attempt to forgive student debt increased awareness about the high costs of a university degree. Unemployment rates during 2023 are at historic lows resulting in increased salaries and even sign-on bonuses for those ready to join the workforce. The effects on enrollments at a specific university are difficult to predict, given all the potential economic and geographic considerations. Generally, the best universities will continue to attract students, but smaller, lesser-known colleges and universities may face enrollment shortages affecting their financial operations resulting in program and employee terminations. This paper examines enrollments at Mississippi State University, considering population and economic climates to provide a template for post-secondary administrators to determine their enrollment forecasts for the next decade.