The Ramifications of Changing Identities in Taiwan for U.S.-Taiwan Relations

The Ramifications of Changing Identities in Taiwan for U.S.-Taiwan Relations Rong Chen (bio) This essay investigates the implications of Taiwan's evolving social and political identities for its international relations, particularly with the United States and mainland China. Specifically, it addresses two questions: (1) what do changing political and social identities in Taiwan mean for U.S.-Taiwan relations, and (2) what are the key takeaways or implications for the United States? The victory of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the 2024 presidential election is significant not only in the context of regional security but more importantly as a reflection of the intricate identity developments that have occurred in Taiwan. Notably, the outcome of this election has exposed the deep alienation of many Taiwanese and showed that the people of Taiwan are not as easily intimidated as Beijing might like to believe and as many in the United States seem to fear.1 Recent Polling on Taiwan Identity The Election Study Center at National Chengchi University in Taiwan has been conducting annual surveys on identity in Taiwan since 1992 and is widely considered a reputable source for data on this topic. Their latest survey of self-identification among the Taiwanese, published in July 2023, indicates that 62.8% of those surveyed identified as Taiwanese (a steady increase from 17.6% in 1992), while 30.5% identified as both Taiwanese and Chinese (a steady decline from 46.4% in 1992), and only 2.5% identified End Page 127 as Chinese (a steady decline from 25.5% in 1992).2 Meanwhile, those who endorsed the status quo in the Taiwan–mainland China relationship composed 60.7%, while 21.4% supported independence, and 6% backed reunification.3 Additionally, a recent poll conducted by United Daily concerning Taiwan-U.S. relations vis-à-vis China found that 15% surveyed believed that independence is the defining variable in cross-strait relations.4 Intriguingly, the public's view on the U.S. role in a cross-strait conflict was rather skeptical, with 40% believing that the United States would not intervene militarily. In sum, recent public surveys, taken together, show that the majority (around 66%) of the Taiwan public desires peace and balanced relations with key international players, most notably the United States and mainland China. Survey and Analysis of How Taiwanese Identity Shapes U.S.-Taiwan Relations How does Taiwanese identity predict perceptions of U.S.-Taiwan relations? To determine this, the author obtained and analyzed data from the Sinophone Borderlands Indo-Pacific Survey, which investigated various global issues, including views of international relations, through a series of large-scale representative surveys of public opinion across Europe, Asia, America, Africa, and Oceania.5 Participants and measures As part of the Sinophone Borderlands Indo-Pacific Survey, a nationally representative sample of 1,350 Taiwanese adults in terms of age, gender, and region was recruited through national online panels by market research firm Cint between May and June 2022. Of the participants, 47.8% identified as female and participants' ages ranged from 18 to 65 (mean age = 39.62, standard deviation = 12.42). End Page 128 Participants were questioned about several measures pertaining to their self-identification. Table 1 presents sample characteristics. • National identification. National identification was measured along a scale for three statements: "I feel a bond with Taiwanese people," "I am glad to be Taiwanese," and "The fact that I am Taiwanese is an important part of my identity." Participants responded on a scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 7 (strongly agree), with higher scores indicating higher Taiwanese identification.6 • Stance on independence versus reunification. To provide a more nuanced understanding of their opinions, participants' stances on independence versus reunification were measured with how they felt about the issue in two situations: "in the current political reality of cross-strait relations" and "if you could choose freely without any repercussions." Participants responded on a scale from 1 (strong reunification) to 7 (strong independence), with higher scores indicating stronger support for Taiwan independence. Click for larger view View full resolution Table 1. Sample Characteristics (N = 1,350) End Page 129 • Party affiliation. Participants were asked to report their political party affiliation on a scale...