Terrestrial carbon dynamics and economic valuation of ecosystem service for land use management in the Mediterranean region

Land use change is a significant cause of land degradation, resulting in the removal of carbon and its transfer to the hydrosphere or atmosphere, which can have a detrimental impact on essential ecosystem functions and services. In contrast, rural landscapes offer both ecological and economic benefits to people due to their carbon storage properties. This benefit is often evaluated within the framework of Ecosystem Services (ES). Rural landscapes offer unique structures and ecosystem services. The aim of this study is to provide an economic quantification of carbon sequestration in rural landscapes as an ecosystem service and to introduce carbon-based rural landscape management. The study enables the integration of carbon-based strategies and policies by generating quantitative outputs for landscape plans that have not yet been included in the spatial planning hierarchy. The Upper Seyhan Basin (USB), located on the Eastern Mediterranean coast of Turkiye, was modelled using spatiotemporal and economic valuation approaches to assess terrestrial carbon storage and sequestration in this context. The study modelled and mapped the four main terrestrial carbon storage components in the rural landscape: (i) above-ground biomass, (ii) below-ground biomass, (iii) Soil Organic Carbon (SOC), and (iv) dead organic matter carbon. The future land cover of 2055 was modelled using the Multilayer Perceptron (MLP)-Markov Chain (MC) algorithm based on the "Business-As-Usual" (BAU) scenario to determine future carbon sequestration. The Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) was estimated for Turkiye using the Regional Integrated Model of Climate and Economy (RICE) to economically model carbon services. In the final stage of the study, modelling outputs, including carbon storage pools/sinks, projected land cover dynamics, and SCC components, were used within the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model to map the carbon dynamics of the rural landscape at the regional level. This paper demonstrates the role of geospatial modelling and proposes a new planning and design logic that considers carbon-based inputs and global climate change in an appropriate format for land management by bridging the interface between earth sciences and spatial planning. The study results indicate that, the rural landscape in the study area provided an ecosystem service of 70,266 TgC carbon in 2014 with a storage value of USD 222,853,170. For the 2014–2025 projection, an estimated 1.042 TgC of carbon sequestration was valued at USD 6,234,137. The 2014–2055 projection estimated 3.185 TgC of carbon sequestration valued at USD 58,745,265.