Developing A Strategic Framework to Build Future Last Mile Delivery Scenarios: A Scenario Thinking Approach

Last mile delivery (LMD) logistics research has drawn attention due to increased urban compactness and environmental concerns arising from freight traffic congestion.This has affected the cost-effectiveness and on-time delivery of urban freight.This study aims to develop a strategic framework to formulate future LMD scenarios based on transport and urban planning constraints using a scenario thinking approach.A scenario thinking stakeholder workshop was conducted to collect data on last mile delivery constraints in Metropolitan Melbourne.The research develops five abridge scenario thinking stages that researchers can adopt in scenario thinking methodology.Using brainstorming and storytelling of scenario thinking approach, participants identified 34 transportation and planning constraints clustered into six urban builtenvironment dimensions that formed the basis of the development of LMD future scenarios.The six clustered dimensions include Freight Infrastructure, Infrastructure Supply, Land use Intensity, Infrastructure Sharing, Intersection Controls and Human Behaviour.Infrastructure Supply and Land use Intensity were found to represent higher uncertainty and higher impact on city logistics provisions.The proposed regulatory-informed and efficiency-responsive strategies are the key to manage LMD.These strategies will help city logistics providers and planners in development of operational plans in making investment decision on LMD challenges.