How quickly can sodium-ion learn? Assessing scenarios for techno-economic competitiveness against lithium-ion batteries

Sodium-ion (Na-ion) batteries have garnered significant attention as a potentially low-cost alternative to lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which have experienced challenges in supply availability and volatility in pricing of key minerals. Here we assess their techno-economic competitiveness against incumbent lithium-ion batteries using a modeling framework incorporating componential learning curves constrained by minerals prices and engineering design floors. We compare projected Na-ion and Li-ion price trends across over 5,400 scenarios while varying Na-ion technology development roadmaps, supply chain scenarios, market penetration, and learning rates. We show that Na-ion struggles to be price advantageous against low-cost lithium-ion variants in the near term and are competitive primarily when the Li-ion supply chain is disrupted. Modeled outcomes suggest maximizing Na-ion energy densities via cost-centric development roadmaps to be the most impactful way to improve competitiveness (over that of market intervention) and highlights the value of enhanced supply chain security.