Mathematical Modeling of the Impact of a 5 Day Interim Relaxation at 21 Days in 42 days Lockdown Strategy on COVID-19 Transmission in India

As of the first week of May 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic is present in 212 nations globally. Many countries have enforced lockdown measures strategically to slow down the epidemic's spread, with the objective of relieving pressure on healthcare systems. Mathematical modelling serves as a useful tool for the prediction of the future numbers of the infected population and for analyzing the effects of various intervention strategies. In this work, a mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations has been developed for analyzing the impact of an interim relaxation of 5 days at 21 days in a 42 days lockdown period. Results of the simulation demonstrate that the relaxation of 5 days during the 42 days lockdown does not result in any adverse effects if the transmission rate remains the same. However, the model-based analysis suggests that an increase in the transmission rate by a factor of 1.2 times during the relaxation period due to the possible aggregation of the susceptible with the infected, it could shift the growth pattern of infected cases from sub-exponential to exponential.