Machine learning models for gully erosion susceptibility assessment in the Tensift catchment, Haouz Plain, Morocco for sustainable development

Gully erosion is a widespread environmental danger, threatening global socio-economic stability and sustainable development. This study comprehensively applied seven machine learning (ML) models including SVM, KNN, RF, XGBoost, ANN, DT, and LR, and evaluated gully erosion susceptibility in the Tensift catchment and predict it within the Haouz plain, Morocco. To ensure the reliability of the findings, the study employed a robust combination of gully erosion inventory, sentinel images, and Digital Surface Model. Eighteen predictors, encompassing topographical, geomorphological, environmental, and hydrological factors, were selected after multicollinearity analyses. The gully erosion susceptibility of the study revealed that approximately 28.18% of the Tensift catchment is at a very high risk of erosion. Furthermore, 15.13% and 31.28% of the catchment are categorized as low and very low respectively. These findings extend to the Haouz plain, where 7.84% of the surface area are very highly risking erosion, while 18.25% and 55.18% are characterized as low and very low risk areas. To gauge the performance of the ML models, an array of metrics including specificity, precision, sensitivity, and accuracy were employed. The study highlights XGBoost and KNN as the most promising models, achieving AUC ROC values of 0.96 and 0.93 in the test phase. The remaining models namely RF (AUC ROC = 0.89), LR (AUC ROC = 0.80), SVM (AUC ROC = 0.81), DT (AUC ROC = 0.86), and ANN (AUC ROC = 0.78), also displayed commendable performance. The novelty of this research is its innovative approach to combat gully erosion through cutting edge ML models, offering practical solutions for watershed conservation, sustainable management, and the prevention of land degradation. These insights are invaluable for addressing the challenges posed by gully erosion within the region, and beyond its geographical boundaries and can be used for defining appropriate mitigation strategies at local to national scale.