Demand and fluctuation range of China's coal production under the dual carbon target

This paper uses the theory of system dynamics and takes the policy measures of "dual carbon" target transformation as the impact variable, establishes a prediction model of coal production demand and fluctuation under "dual carbon" target based on system dynamics, and determines the relationship between the intensity of "dual carbon" target transformation into policy and coal production demand and fluctuation amplitude. The results show that policy intensity has significant influence on coal production demand and fluctuation range in different directions.1) With the increase of policy intensity, the coal production demand in the same year will decrease by 0.5–610 million tce, the peak coal production demand will decrease by 0.8–130 million tce, and the peak coal production demand will appear about 2 years earlier. 2) Under different policy intensification, the difference of coal production and demand fluctuation and the difference of peak coal production and demand fluctuation in the same year are within 20 million tce.3) With the increase of policy intensity, the fluctuation range of coal production and demand in the same year increased by 0.3–38.6 percentage points, showing a rapid amplification trend.