Climate change variability and its implications for rising GLOF risk in the Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India

Recent studies on climate change in the fragile landscapes of the Indian Himalayan Region showed that they are highly sensitive to climatic variability. Glaciers, snow, and permafrost, all interact and respond to climate in distinct ways and there is continual concern about current and projected climate change implications. Floods, landslides, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and shifting precipitation patterns are all potential hazards in the Kinnaur district. These risks have the potential to disrupt the region's socioeconomic fabric and imperil human lives, infrastructure, agriculture, and ecosystems. The Kinnaur district of Himachal Pradesh, India, remains susceptible to the impending threat of GLOFs, as evidenced by its turbulent history marred by devastating flood disasters in 1997 and 2005. This study aims to examine temperature and rainfall variability to imply a notional link between climate change and the spatio-temporal dynamism of glacial lakes in the area. Therefore, using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and the Sen's slope test trend analyses are performed for 30 years (1990 to 2020) using gridded rainfall and temperature data of the district corresponding to yearly scales. The trend results were then correlated with the spatial area percentage change in the glacial lakes present in the district. The pertinent knowledge on climate change-associated hazards will assist stakeholders and policymakers in boosting resilience to climate change and concealing the socioeconomic and environmental systems amidst the mountain GLOF hazard risks.