Recent patterns of crop yield growth, stagnation and their drivers in China’s dryland

Continued population growth, changing climate and increased pressure on water resources will dramatically increase the pressure on Chinese agriculture in the coming decades. Although there have been some reports of yield stagnation in the world’s major cereal crops, including maize, rice and wheat, the reasons for stagnation have not been quantified thoroughly. Here, we use statistical data to examine the trends in crop yields for two key Chinese crops: maize and wheat and their drivers in China’s drylands. Results showed that although yields continue to increase in many areas, we found that across 70.2% of maize- and 51.9% of wheat- growing prefectures or provinces, yields either never improved, stagnated or collapsed. The reasons for the decline and stagnation of crop yield were mainly caused by the change of growing season precipitation and irrigation fraction. New investments such as increased irrigation fraction in underperforming regions, as well as strategies to continue increasing yields in the high-performing areas, are required.