Forest Ecosystem on the Edge: Mapping Forest Fragmentation Susceptibility in Tuchola Forest, Poland

Amidst the growing urgency to sustain forest ecosystems, this study presents a crucial analysis of forest fragmentation susceptibility in Poland's Tuchola Forest—a region recurrently devastated by windstorm events. Our research aims to innovatively harness remote sensing technologies for a comprehensive assessment of forest fragmentation from 2015 to 2020. The study primarily revolves around three objectives: selecting the most suitable remote sensing dataset for monitoring fragmentation, identifying key contributing factors to forest fragmentation, and developing a susceptibility map to illustrate the forest’s fragmentation dynamics. Employing a comparative analysis with the GTB tool, we scrutinized the capabilities of PALSAR (25m resolution) and Dynamic World (10m resolution) datasets. Our findings highlighted PALSAR's superior proficiency in detecting rare-patchy fragments, despite its marginally higher resolution. To construct a forest fragmentation susceptibility map, we used fragmented patches observed over the last six years as indicators of regions prone to intense fragmentation. These patches were further analyzed through the Weight-of-Evidence (WOE) method, where causative factors were normalized and scrutinized using a Correlation matrix. The results indicate a heightened vulnerability of forest areas proximal to agricultural lands (<200 m) and barelands (<50 m), especially those with younger trees (5-15 years) and shorter tree heights (<18m). Such areas are more susceptible to fragmentation, exacerbated by high wind speeds (25-27 m/sec) and moderate vegetation water content. In contrast, regions distant from agricultural lands, particularly those on steeper slopes, demonstrate lower fragmentation susceptibility. Our methodology, validated with an 82% accuracy, calls for immediate conservation measures in Tuchola Forest's fragile areas. It offers a scalable approach, underscoring the critical role of forest conservation in maintaining biodiversity and resilience against climate adversities. This study marks a pivotal contribution to Polish forestry research, providing actionable insights for decision-makers in forest reforestation, restoration, and afforestation strategies.