Do earthquakes start with precursory slow aseismic slip?

The existence of an observable precursory phase of aseismic slip on the faults before large earthquakes has been debated for decades. We conducted a global search for short-term precursory slip in GPS data. We summed the displacements measured by 3026 high-rate (5-minutes sample) GPS time series—projected onto the displacements expected from precursory slip at the hypocenter—during 48 hours before 90 (moment magnitude ≥7) earthquakes. Our approach revealed a ≈2-hour-long exponential acceleration of slip before the ruptures, suggesting that large earthquakes do start with a precursory phase of slip acceleration. The results have since been questioned as being due to an unfortunate combination of common mode noise in GPS time series. We investigate this possibility along with complementary tests to quantify the likelihood of the proposed pre-slip and the common mode hypotheses.