Exploring pathways to sustain a stable transboundary cooperation for Lancang-Mekong River Basin under changing hydrological conditions

Transboundary river cooperation is crucial to maintaining regional security and achieving sustainable development. However, the stability of cooperation is challenged by changing external hydrological conditions, hindering the enormous benefits sharing foreseen from basin-wide cooperation. This paper focuses on the solution idea and pathway on how to lead a stable cooperation in the Lancang-Mekong River Basin (LMRB). The Nash equilibrium concept is introduced to illustrate the premise of stable cooperation, in which no party has the motivation to defect under all possible situations. Considering the passive acceptance of the hydrological conditions, we suggest that proactive negotiation in the electricity trade provides a viable pathway for stable cooperation. Following this solution idea and pathway, we present the Lancang-Mekong River Basin as a case and propose a normalized dual water-electricity cooperation (NDWEC) framework. The impacts of hydrological uncertainties on cooperation and the corresponding electricity trade negotiation space are investigated within the NDWEC framework. The negotiation space implies thresholds of acceptability, consisting of the bottom line (the starting point of negotiation) and the ceiling (the expectations of the negotiation). The results from the negotiation space show that Thailand and Vietnam are active advocators with considerable benefits in basin-wide cooperation. In contrast, Laos and Cambodia face limited negotiation space, suggesting the need for additional incentives from other interested areas, such as financial channels. Moreover, stress-tests under future climate models indicate a warning of approximately 3~6% failure risk in negotiations. This work can provide valuable insights into the decision-making processes of riparian countries in today’s changing world.