Empirical scaling correlations between fault lengths and fault slip-rates in seismically-active extensional regions: The Calabria and Messina Strait region (southern Italy) as case study

In this study, we present scaling relationships between fault lengths, fault slip-rates and historical seismicity for an active normal fault system, seismically accommodating crustal extension within the upper plate of the Ionian subduction zone (southern Italy). This crustal extension is confirmed by historical seismicity and instrumental geodesy, with GNSS-derived values of horizonal deformation within a range of 2-3 mm/yr throughout Calabria and the Messina Strait region. We collated data for fault slip-rates, fault lengths and historical earthquakes for a given fault to explore whether fault slip-rates are correlated with fault size and their geometric moment.We present new results showing a robust correlation between fault lengths and fault slip-rates, which supports the idea of a relationship for a given fault between fault slip-rates and the geometric moment.We discuss our results in terms of how these correlations should be used if regional deformation is accommodated by localised strain on faults mostly arranged along strike rather than distributed strain on multiple faults across-strike. For instance, we compare our empirical correlation between fault lengths and fault throw-rates over the Middle-Late Pleistocene in Calabria and the Messina Strait with those from Central and Southern Apennines over the Holocene, characterized by strain distributed on multiple faults across-strike and strain localised on faults mostly arranged along-strike, respectively.Tectonic and seismic hazard implications are discussed for future investigations based on fault slip-rates, fault size and historical seismicity.