The PANACEA project: Probabilistic AssessmeNt of volCano-related multi-hazard and multi-risk at Mount EtnA

Volcanic risks cannot be stopped or eliminated, but their effects can be minimized by applying new methods and providing data to support decision-making processes. Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, producing both effusive and explosive eruptions, together with very intense seismic activity, which significantly influence the territory and society. The PANACEA project intends to address some issues that are still open in the modeling and integration of risks deriving from seismic and volcanic hazards, in order not to be caught unprepared and implement proactive risk reduction policies. In particular, the project has focused on the: (i) classification and statistical analysis of the historical eruptions of Etna; (ii) revision of the historical earthquake catalogue and the related database of macroseismic intensities; (iii) assessment of the long-term probability of vent opening based on historical eruptions and seismicity; (iv) extraction of the input parameters to run numerical simulations; (v) physics-based modeling of complex geophysical flows; (vi) probabilistic hazard mapping for single eruptive products, i.e. lava, tephra fallout and PDCs; (vii) probabilistic seismic hazard assessment; (viii) harmonization of the different hazards in a single long-term hazard map; (ix) analysis of the possible interactions at the hazard and the vulnerability levels, in order to quantitatively update hazard and risk estimations; (x) exposure and vulnerability assessment of elements at risk; (xi) multi-risk analysis by combining multi-hazards, exposure and vulnerability assessment. The results of PANACEA demonstrate that a better understanding of geophysical flow mechanisms, as well as improvements in knowledge in volcanic and seismic multi-hazard and multi-risk assessment, both in conceptual and technological terms, provide a powerful tool to develop effective and operational strategies, improving safety and reducing the impact of Etna's eruptive events.