Analyzing Complex Contagion Effects in Donation Diffusion: A Hybrid Network Science and Neural Network Approach

Complex contagion is a phenomenon to analyze diffusions in types of behaviors or actions. In contrast to simple contagion, which is associated with the transmission of viruses, complex contagion involves a more intricate process of influence, making multiple exposures to certain behaviors or actions necessary before an individual adopts them. In this context, the dynamics of complex contagion are in the domain of financial contribution to presidential campaigns from 2000 to 2012 cycles. The study uncovers the factors shaping the decision-making process of potential donors. The number of exposures to donors exhibits an unexpected negative correlation with the likelihood of an individual contributing to a presidential campaign. On the other hand, the amount of money the connected donors to potential contributions made seems to influence predicting their chance to donate. In addition to making donations, many donors are shown to be already influenced to contribute to a presidential candidate, and investing time and resources in them will be unnecessary for advertising. Therefore, it can be more beneficial for campaigns to increase the quantity of each contribution instead of finding various donors to gain influence on their relations.