525 EP028 – Ultrasound prediction of years to peak height velocity age

Background Late-maturing children face a higher risk of sports injuries. This study hypothesized that using ultrasound to observe secondary ossification centers and predict the years until Peak Height Velocity Age (PHVA) could enable the customization of exercise intensity based on the maturation stage. Objective To predict the years until PHVA using ultrasound. Design Prospective cohort study with ultrasound assessments. Participants 181 elementary school boys and girls from grades 1 to 6 who obtained consent for data usage and measurements. Assessment From June to December of 2019, observations were conducted on twelve locations of eight secondary ossification centers (ulnar sesamoid of the thumb, pisiform, hamate hook, olecranon, medial epicondyle, tibial tuberosity, calcaneus, and plantar sesamoid) using ultrasound. The state of the secondary ossification centers (e.g., presence of epiphyseal nuclei, size, cartilage thickness) were used as the independent variable, and the years until PHVA was employed as the dependent variable for conducting multiple linear regression analysis. PHVA was calculated using height data with the AUXAL software. Years until PHVA were obtained by subtracting the age at ultrasound measurement from the calculated PHVA. Primary Outcome Years until PHVA. Results Using years until PHVA as the dependent variable and twelve ultrasound-assessed sites as exploratory variables, multiple regression produced this predictive equation: Years until PHVA = 1.205 + 0.229 * hamate hook + 0.562 * calcaneus – 1.121 * plantar sesamoid – 0.679 * tibial tuberosity (R2 = 0.790). Each coefficient was statistically significant, and no multicollinearity was observed among the explanatory variables. Conclusions The derived predictive equation demonstrated statistically significant results, with specific sites like the hamate hook, calcaneus, plantar sesamoid, and tibial tuberosity significantly influencing the years until PHVA. These findings suggest that using ultrasound to assess maturation stages has the potential to reduce the risk of sports-related injuries in children.