This paper provides (1) an outlook of Taiwan’s chip industry relative to other countries, (2) projections for Taiwan’s future with possible scenarios, (3) tentative forecasts for the future prospect of Taiwanese chip firms, and (4) policy suggestions in the interests of Taiwan. Our results show varying degrees of impacts on the revenues of chip firms based upon different war-peace scenarios. Taiwan's government should take active steps to de-risk and stabilize political relationships with China.
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Liao Hu (2024) studied this question.