Decadal Impacts of Climate Variability on Forest Cover in Northern Himalayas

Gilgit-Baltistan is a critical catchment area of Himalayan mountains, situated in the north of Pakistan with 4% of forest area. The study provides an insight to spatiotemporal patterns of vegetation response to climate in Gilgit-Baltistan, using satellite-derived vegetation index and multi-source climate datasets for the years 2010-2019. Two meteorological parameters, temperature and precipitation from WorldClim and ground-based stations were used to make an in-depth analysis of the response of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dynamics to climate in Gilgit-Baltistan. The results showed a declining trend in forest area in lower hills with highest area calculated in 2010 and lowest in 2019. There is negative correlation between forest area and temperature with significant correlation obtained from WorldClim data. There is positive correlation between forest area and rainfall with a p-value of <0.05. Gilgit-Baltistan is extremely arid. This is due to the rain shadow effect of the Himalayas, but periodically rains associated with the summer monsoons can sometimes result in disastrous flooding as well. The study could be helpful for accurately understanding impacts of climate change on forest growth and be beneficial for effective mountain ecosystem management.