Research on Provincial Energy Carbon Emission Prediction Based on PSO-BP Optimization Algorithm

Henan Province has a large energy consumption and a fossil fuel-based energy structure, and the realization of the "dual-carbon" goal is of great significance for the whole country. Based on the IPCC emission coefficient method, the carbon emissions of Henan Province from 2000 to 2020 are estimated, the relationship between carbon emissions and economic development is explored in depth, and the PSO-BP optimization algorithm is used to simulate and predict the carbon emissions of Henan Province. The results show that the carbon emissions of Henan Province in 2000–2020 show an increasing trend and the intensity of carbon emissions shows a decreasing trend, and the combination of PSO and BP can effectively improve the prediction accuracy of neural network. The prediction results show that under the baseline scenario, low carbon scenario and enhanced low carbon scenario, the results of carbon peaking are predicted, and relevant policy recommendations are put forward.