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The article analyzes the main factors of foreign economic activity, which can affect the results of basic indicators values of the industrial enterprises main activity. The direct mathematical dependence between the change in revenues from export sales and the dynamics of profit indicators before taxation and value added of sold products is revealed. A few data on the structure of costs and starting values of organizations’ incomes, which are necessary for the forecast analysis, are listed. The direct dependence between the performance indicators of enterprises and revenues to the regions tax budgets depending on the nature of the foreign economic factor that affects export revenues is substantiated. The purpose of the analysis is to create a tool for forecasting changes in pre-tax profit and value added under the influence of changing prices and sales volumes on foreign markets. The created model contains four final formulas, which were expressed using the generally accepted theory of financial management with the addition of new indicators for the non-standard situations analysis. The presented technology of forecasting the dynamics of tax revenues (based on changes in the indicators that are their tax base) can be used by analytical bodies of regional authorities to assess the consequences of the foreign economic risks implementation and develop recommendations for the federal budget to reallocate funds for support the expenditures of those subjects of the federation, which will experience the most pronounced impact of this phenomenon.
Davankov et al. (Wed,) studied this question.