Resilience assessment of container ports under storm disturbance based on fuzzy Bayesian network

Storms have had a huge impact on container port operations in recent years, leading to port disruptions and closures. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the resilience of container ports to storm disturbances. Aiming at the problem that resilience assessment only starts from a single perspective without considering specific disturbance issues, from the perspective of infrastructure and stakeholders, a single disturbance in the storm scenario is considered, and guided by resilience, a fuzzy Bayesian method is proposed. Resilience assessment methods for networks. theory. First, guided by resilience theory, the definition of resilience and its constituent capabilities are proposed. Secondly, based on literature analysis and questionnaires, elasticity evaluation indicators are determined and identified as each node of the Bayesian network. In view of the difficulty of data collection, the prior probability and conditional probability were determined through fuzzy set theory and expert interviews, and a fuzzy Bayesian network was constructed. Finally, through case analysis, reasoning and diagnostic analysis are performed based on GeNIe simulation software. The results show that the port resilience is not high and needs to be strengthened. At the same time, factors affecting port toughness are determined through reasoning.