Planning Educational Infrastructure in Kazakhstan under Demographic Growth with Digital Decision-Support Tools

Accelerated and uneven demographic growth in Kazakhstan is shaping spatially differentiated demand dynamics for places in early childhood education institutions and first-grade classes, necessitating anticipatory planning. The aim of the study is to analyze the impact of demographic growth on preschool and primary education infrastructure, to forecast the demand for places using the cohort-age method, and to develop targeted recommendations to prevent infrastructure shortages. The study applies an agecohort (cohort-component) projection integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and business intelligence (BI) visualization to assess regional needs without relying on school “capacity” calculations. In 2029, the number of preschool-age children is expected to increase primarily in the southern and western regions, indicating the need to expand the network of early childhood education providers. By 2030, the highest first-grade intake is projected in Almaty region (approximately 5.8 thousand), Kyzylorda region (approximately 5.4 thousand), and Shymkent city (approximately 5.9 thousand). Regression analysis confirmed the significant impact of fertility (β=0.48; p<0.01) and migration (β=0.31; p<0.05) on the infrastructural load. These estimates provide a foundation for prioritizing and phasing in additional seats, planning workforce needs, targeting the allocation of resources and subsidies, and aligning construction plans with anticipated demographic dynamics, measures that will promote more equitable access to education and strengthen the resilience of regional systems.