Background. African startups operate amid acute capital scarcity and fragmented institutions, which complicates credible quality revelation to investors. Purpose. Focusing on the venture as the unit of analysis, this study investigates how milestones pursued inside university-affiliated accelerators function as signals of venture quality under scarcity, and how entrepreneurial behaviors shape the clarity and credibility of those signals. Design/methodology/approach. We track 17 technology ventures across East- and West-African university accelerators over 185 venture-quarters, combining venture-level panel regressions, event-study analysis, and fuzzy-set QCA. Two composite measures—the Governance-Readiness Index and the Signal-Portfolio Index—capture internal capability building and externally legible signals. Findings. Ventures graduating from university-affiliated accelerators secured roughly three times more equity than matched non-accelerated peers, with heterogeneity explained by milestone attainment and the breadth/strength of signal portfolios. We articulate a signal–noise paradox: effectuation/bricolage behaviors enable survival and progress under constraint yet can appear ambiguous to investors, attenuating signal clarity unless paired with governance readiness and externally validated milestones. Originality/value. The paper elevates signaling theory as the primary lens for early-stage ventures in emerging-market contexts, treats effectuation/bricolage as behavioral mechanisms, and situates staged financing as process logic and triple-helix/institutional-voids as contextual moderators. In doing so, it refines entrepreneurial signaling theory for scarcity contexts and offers actionable diagnostics for accelerators and policymakers designing inclusive, quality-assuring programs.
Mukasa et al. (2025) studied this question.