Some Aspects of Risk Management of the Ukrainian Logistics Company Development Project

Logistic risk is understood as the danger of a delay in the supply chain, or a disruption in the operation of one or more links in the chain.Risk is becoming an integral element of socio-economic relations and is becoming an integral part of the strategy and tactics of the general policy of the enterprise, therefore, the study of the problem of logistics risk management is an urgent task. In the reviewed studies on logistics risk management, issues related to risk classification, methods for increasing reliability and minimizing the impact of risks on the results of production and investment activities, the use of qualitative and quantitative analysis methods for this can be noted, but there is a lack of sufficient examples.The purpose of the article is to analyze the risks of an investment project for the development of a logistics company - opening a new department in the field of logistics aimed at a small market spectrum, namely cargo handling in Poland. Marginal analysis provides important opportunities for substantiating management decisions. The methodology of this analysis is based on studying the relationship between three groups of the most important economic indicators: costs - volume of production (sales) of products - profit, and on predicting the critical and optimal value of each of these indicators for a given value of the others.The calculation of the break-even point of the organization can be used to justify the appropriate volume of work that can ensure profitability and reliability in terms of risk avoidance. For example, the storage volumes in the warehouse are considered from 150 to 170 containers per month. he storage volume is a factor that depends on the demand for the container repacking service. To select the best option for the plan, an analysis was conducted using the scenario method.Logistics company development project has an average level of risk in terms of storage volume. The value of the average mathematical expectation NPV is close to the value of this indicator in the normal scenario, so this scenario can be chosen for the implementation of the project. Reducing fixed costs in this regard provides an additional increase in breakeven.Scenario analysis is a fairly advanced tool for assessing the risk of an investment project.