Abstract Background In China’s rapidly aging society, retirement and grandchild caregiving are two critical life transitions for older adults. This study examines how these dynamics jointly relate to depressive symptoms among older adults and explores their implications for coordinating elder-care and childcare policies. Methods Using data from the 2018 wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS; ages 40–75; N = 7,730), we estimate OLS and IV–2SLS models. Gender-specific statutory retirement ages (men 60, women 55) serve as instruments for retirement. Depressive symptoms are measured using the standardized CES-D10 scale. Covariates include parent–child satisfaction, caregiving status and intensity, health status, marital status, household size, education, urban/rural residence, and age. Robustness checks include weak-IV-robust inference, a restricted 55–65 age bandwidth, and a supplementary male-only RDD/IV analysis. Results OLS results suggest retirees report fewer depressive symptoms, whereas IV estimates indicate that individuals “nudged” into retirement at statutory ages experience higher depression. Instrument strength is borderline in the full sample, stronger within the 55–65 age range, but weak in the male-only RDD/IV. Grandchild caregiving shows a dual pattern: providing any care is associated with lower depression, but supplementary spline analyses reveal that depressive symptoms rise significantly once weekly caregiving exceeds 40 h. Interaction analyses indicate that higher education and better self-rated health mitigate the adverse association between retirement and depression. Parent–child satisfaction consistently predicts better mental health across models, underscoring its protective role. Conclusion Naïve associations may reflect favorable selection and post-retirement lifestyle adjustments, whereas IV estimates highlight the psychological costs of abrupt, rule-based retirement. Large IV estimates should be interpreted cautiously as local rather than precise effects. Policy reforms delaying retirement should be accompanied by phased exit options, routine psychological screening and counseling, and expanded investment in affordable childcare and respite services to alleviate dual pressures on older adults and foster intergenerational harmony.
Mou et al. (2025) studied this question.