Retrospective Analysis of Permafrost Bearing Capacity During the Period of Intensive Arctic Development (1950-2022)

The permafrost model is adapted to calculate the bearing capacity of pile building foundations according to the methodology adopted in engineering geocryology. Using retrospective calculations for 1950-2022, territories are identified where the bearing capacity incorporated in the design of buildings was exhausted in extreme years, and the number of such years during the analyzed period is counted. The results show that the predicted loss of the bearing capacity of foundations is not unprecedented for many regions and cities in the Russian Arctic. In 22 of 27 analyzed cities and settlements, they occurred in particular extreme years. In 11 cities located in the continuous and discontinuous permafrost zones, the number of extreme years ranged from 12-17 (Salekhard, Novy Urengoy, Lensk, Anadyr, Magadan) to 21-25 (Tarko-Sale, Aldan, Olekminsk) during 1950-2022. The results of the study can be used to refine the measures on the adaptation of infrastructure in the Arctic regions to climate change.