Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Runoff in the Amur Basin Using Observation and Reanalysis Data

The presence of trends in the series of data on air temperature, total precipitation, and water discharge is estimated for six watersheds belonging to the Amur River basin. For the historical time period, river runoff simulation has been performed using the HBV conceptual model. The model inputs were the meteorological observations and GSWP3-W5E5 reanalysis data. The effect of applying the NSE and KGE criterion as an objective function on the runoff modeling results and parameter values is discussed. A conclusion is made about sufficient efficiency of runoff modeling using reanalysis data and possibility of applying GSWP3-W5E5 data for assessing hydrological consequences of climate change on the analyzed watersheds. The discharge series calculated using reanalysis data for a longer period (as compared to observations) were subjected to trend analysis.