Determinants of International Trade in the Indonesian Agriculture and Fisheries Sector: Import Tariffs and Price Dynamics of Seaweed

The agriculture and fisheries are the mainstay sectors in the Indonesian economy, with seaweed as one of its leading commodities that produces various processed products. In the international market, seaweed is a food source with high demand, with countries such as China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and South Korea contributing significantly to its production. In Indonesia, seaweed production has fluctuated in the last decade, which has an impact on the value of trade (exports) and the economy as a whole. However, the effects of import tariffs and international price fluctuations on export values are still under-researched, leaving a gap in understanding these determinants. This study aims to analyze the effects of import tariffs (Hypothesis 1) and international seaweed prices (Hypothesis 2) on the volume of Indonesian seaweed exports. This study uses an explanatory quantitative approach with panel data analysis that combines time series data (2012–2022) and cross-sectoral data from Indonesia's main export destination countries: Chile, China, Denmark, France, Hong Kong, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, Spain, and Vietnam. Data was analyzed using a panel regression model with EViews statistical software. The results of the study show that import tariffs in export destination countries have a significant effect on Indonesian seaweed exports (supporting Hypothesis 1), indicating the need to strengthen the domestic processing industry to produce value-added products such as carrageenan and agar-agar. This policy not only changes trade patterns, but also encourages economic transformation, increases global competitiveness, and supports national economic growth. In addition, this study confirms that value addition through processing can stabilize exports amidst international price fluctuations (supporting Hypothesis 2). Specifically, this finding suggests that higher import tariffs in export destination countries encourage Indonesia to strengthen its domestic processing industry, especially in the production of value-added products such as carrageenan and agar-agar. This indicates that import tariff policies can be an incentive for producing countries to increase the capacity of their processed product processing industries. Furthermore, this finding suggests that value addition through processing seaweed into value-added products helps maintain export stability despite international price fluctuations, which in turn increases Indonesia's competitiveness in the global market. The practical implication is that the Government and industry stakeholders should utilize import tariff policies as an opportunity to increase domestic seaweed processing capacity, focusing on value-added products such as carrageenan and agar-agar. There needs to be diversification of seaweed export products through processing, export stability can be maintained despite international price fluctuations, while expanding market reach with more competitive processed products.