Analysis reveals that political speech affects bitcoin price movements during geopolitical tensions, highlighting volatility.
In the context of persistent socio-economic challenges and heightened geopolitical tensions, the influence of political communication on cryptocurrency markets has become an increasingly relevant field of inquiry. The present study examines the impact of political speech on Bitcoin price movements, focusing on the February 9, 2024, interview between Vladimir Putin and Tucker Carlson. High-frequency Bitcoin price data against EUR, GBP, and USD from Kraken and Binance (January 1–February 26, 2024) were synchronised with a fully timestamped interview transcript. Multiple linear regression analysis was applied to assess the relationship between speaking turns and price changes, controlling for cross-currency effects. The analysis revealed a statistically significant but weak positive association between Putin’s speaking turns and BTC/EUR price changes, while no significant effects were observed for BTC/GBP or BTC/USD. The findings indicate that Bitcoin prices, despite their decentralised and non-sovereign nature, remain sensitive to geopolitical events and political rhetoric. Considering ongoing sanctions, market volatility, and global economic uncertainty, these results underscore the importance of incorporating political risk variables into cryptocurrency valuation and forecasting models.
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Samuli Saarinen (2025) studied this question.
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