The Global Stock Market and the Metallurgical Sector of the Russian Stock Market in the Context of Economic Instability, Sanctions, and Customs Wars in 2017–2025

The statistical dependences of the stock indices of RTS and two large companies in the metallurgical sector of the Russian stock market on the dynamics of the indicators of the resource sector of the global stock market have been studied. Experimental calculations were performed and the main factors influencing the dynamics of these dependencies were identified during periods of crisis in 2020–2022 (during the pandemic), in 2022–2024 (in connection with the sanctions war with Russia) and in the first half of 2025, when the United States began to impose high customs duties on exporting countries. The calculations are based on the dynamics of the RTS index and on stock quotations of PJSC Severstal and PJSC Mining and Metallurgical Combine Norilsk Nickel. It is shown that, unlike other sectors of the stock market, the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly affect the closeness and direction of the statistical relationship between the dynamics of the share price of these companies and the indicator of the resource sector of the global stock market, whereas the massive anti-Russian sanctions of 2022–2024 sharply weakened this relationship to an insignificant one. The customs war declared by the United States in 2025 has not yet affected Russia, but the situation has improved for the ferrous metallurgy, as a result of which the studied statistical dependence on PJSC Severstal has strengthened, but it has not reached a significant level.