Did Pre-Pandemic Administrative Capacity Predict School Districts’ Remote Learning Success? An Empirical Analysis of COVID-Era Education Outcomes Across U.S. Districts

The COVID-19 pandemic forced an abrupt transition to remote learning in K-12 education, exposing wide disparities in districts’ ability to sustain instruction. Much of the existing research highlights household-level inequities such as broadband access and parental support, but less is known about the institutional capacity of districts themselves. This study examines whether pre-pandemic administrative capacity, including digital infrastructure, budget transparency, and organizational planning, shaped districts’ ability to adapt during the crisis. Using publicly available panel data from 2018 to 2022 and a difference-in-differences (DiD) regression design, this study tests whether districts with stronger pre-2020 capacity achieved higher levels of remote learning success, measured through engagement, instructional weeks, and related outcomes. Results show that districts with higher administrative capacity prior to the pandemic delivered more resilient instruction and mitigated participation losses, particularly in lower-income contexts. These findings suggest that building institutional capacity before a crisis can reduce educational inequality and strengthen preparedness for future disruptions.