Capital Export Index as A Tool for Strategic Forecasting

The paper develops and empirically tests a composite index based solely on foreign direct investment (FDI) data to classify countries according to their central, semi-peripheral, or peripheral position in the global economic system. The research object is the set of national economies viewed through the lens of their participation in worldwide FDI flows, while the research subject is the theoretical and methodological framework enabling the identification of each country’s export-investment activity and strategic potential. The hypothesis is that outward FDI plays a decisive role in reshaping global capital accumulation, thereby distinguishing states that consistently allocate and control capital abroad (centers) from those focusing on attracting investments (peripheries). Grounded in the structural logic of world-system theory and using macroeconomic indicators of capital flows, the study proposes a numerical threshold for assigning countries to distinct strata. The time frame from 1990 to 2023 covers key phases of global economic cycles (including the crises of 1997–1998, 2008–2009, and the COVID‑19 recession), allowing the authors to trace how the proposed index reflects shifts in foreign investment patterns among the United States, China, Russia, and a broader set of countries. The findings indicate that the new FDI-based classification method captures critical structural changes overlooked by traditional GDP-centered models, including the impact of geopolitical tensions and technological competition. The article also outlines practical ways to integrate the proposed methodology into strategic forecasting and planning, while acknowledging its limitations (e. g., potential distortions from offshore jurisdictions) and suggesting future improvements (such as incorporating Net International Investment Position or capital stock metrics). Overall, the study offers a quantitative framework grounded in world-system theory for assessing countries’ positions in global capital flows and forecasting their medium- to long-term trajectories.