Existential shocks as a challenge and environment of the state’s financial security management

The paper is dedicated to the conceptualization of existential shocks as factors triggering crises in the financial domain and the assessment of their impact on the management of the state’s financial security. The study focuses on analyzing events with a significant destructive effect on the national economy, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The research aims to theoretically substantiate existential shocks as triggers of financial crises and to determine their role in the processes of managing the state’s financial security. The methodological framework integrates theoretical and empirical approaches, including generalization, synthesis, induction, and interpolation for systematizing the causes of financial crises; as well as econometric modeling, specifically the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, and the bounds test, which were employed to evaluate the impact of shocks on monetary expectations. The paper proposes a classification of the causes of financial crises, distinguishing between endogenous (internal) and exogenous (external) events. The influence of existential shocks on Ukraine’s financial sector is investigated, particularly through an analysis of the consequences of the pandemic and the war. Key characteristics of such phenomena are identified: their sudden (unpredictable) nature, unprecedented pressure on public finances, disruptive changes in operational activities, contradictory market behavior, and extreme market volatility. Econometric modeling demonstrates that under the influence of shocks, instability increases while the predictability of inflation and exchange rate expectations decreases, thereby complicating macro-financial management. The study introduces the concept of existential shocks into scientific discourse, offering a new perspective on the causes of financial crises. The analysis of the specific impact of the pandemic and war on Ukraine’s financial sector underscores its destructive potential. The practical significance of the research lies in elucidating the mechanisms through which such events affect monetary expectations, which is crucial for shaping macro-financial policy. Future research should focus on developing indicators of existential shocks and modeling their nonlinear effects.