Structural shifts in the ukraine"s foreign trade during the war with Russia

Important determinants of the Ukraine"s exports and imports across commodity and non-commodity subgroups are analysed, with a focus on the structural shifts initiated by the war with Russia which erupted in 2014 and evolved into a full-scale invasion in February 2022. Both commodity and non-commodity exports suffered a symmetrical decline in both 2014-2015 and 2022-2024 periods, while similar downwards shifts in the imports of both subgroups are asymmetrical in the latter. Using quarterly data for the 2010-2024 period, it is found that the output growth correlates positively with the dynamics of both exports and imports across the commodity and non-commodity subgroups. As expected, depreciation of the exchange rate contributes to a decrease in the commodity imports, while it is just the opposite for the non-commodity imports. The latest Russian invasion of 2022 has been marked by a decrease in the non-commodity exports combined with an opposite positive effect on the non-commodity imports; no impact on the commodity exports and imports is detected.