Proportion of Future U.S. Health Insurance Prices in Income Predicted Based on the ARIMA Model

This study finds that, based on simulations from 2025 to 2200, the financial burden of health insurance on US residents is projected to exceed affordability thresholds for many individuals in the future. The research focuses on the changing trends in the proportion of insurance expenditures in individual and household income. Publicly available statistical data is selected to facilitate in-depth research, covering key variables such as average and median individual income, household income, and annual premiums for employer-provided single-person insurance. To predict long-term trends in these indicators, the study employs the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, suitable for processing non-stationary time series data. It conducts a dynamic simulation of insurance expenditures and income. Based on this, the proportion of insurance expenditures across different income categories is calculated and compared with affordability thresholds set by the US government and the World Health Organization (WHO) to determine whether insurance price increases are beyond the reach of the public. The study thus proposes a quantitative method for assessing health insurance affordability and provides policymakers with an early warning model for the sustainability of the health insurance system, as well as a warning mechanism.