Analysis reveals asymptotic mixed normal distribution for QMLE in Gibbs partitions, suggesting confidence intervals for predictions.
We study the asymptotic properties of parameter estimation and predictive inference under the exchangeable Gibbs partition, characterized by a discount parameter α∈(0,1) and a triangular array vn,k satisfying a backward recursion. Assuming that vn,k admits a mixture representation over the Ewens--Pitman family $(α, θ)$, with $θ$ integrated by an unknown mixing distribution, we show that the (quasi) maximum likelihood estimator αₙ (QMLE) for $α$ is asymptotically mixed normal. This generalizes earlier results for the Ewens--Pitman model to a more general class. We further study the predictive task of estimating the probability simplex pₙ, which governs the allocation of the $(n+1)$-th item, conditional on the current partition of $[n]$. Based on the asymptotics of the QMLE αₙ, we construct an estimator p̂ₙ and derive the limit distributions of the f-divergence Df(p̂ₙ||pₙ) for general convex functions f, including explicit results for the TV distance and KL divergence. These results lead to asymptotically valid confidence intervals for both parameter estimation and prediction.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Takuya Koriyama (2025) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: