Analysis reveals a 50% spike in essential hours for renters, suggesting time-indexed wage policies may stabilize affordability.
We measure Monthly Survival Hours (MSH, or Essential Hours), the paid work time required to buy a fixed essentials basket, revealing a sharp affordability crisis: D3 renter hours spiked 50% from 117.4 hours (2019) to 175.7 hours (2022), with 2025 levels at 157.7 hours. We test two implementable policies: a Time-Indexed Minimum Wage (TIMW) that sets the wage floor by rule wmin,t = Ct/Htarget to cap essentials at 120 hours/month, and an Essential Hours Tax Credit (EHTC) that refunds gaps below 100 hours/month for low-wage cohorts via monthly advances. Using CPI components and CPS/OEWS wages across six metros, we show how TIMW stabilizes MSH near target while EHTC backstops D1–D3 renters during shocks, delivering a dual-key hours guarantee without price controls. Case studies for Phoenix, NYC, and Houston illustrate both ends of the metro spread.
No takes yet. Share an insight, caveat, or question.
Pow et al. (2025) studied this question.
Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context: