Evaluating the Macroeconomic Impact of Fiscalstructural Reforms: The Case of Armenia/Հարկաբյուջետային Կառուցվածքային Բարեփոխումներիմակրոտնտեսական Հետեվանքների Գնահատումը Հայաստանիհանրապետության Օրինակով

The problem of evaluating structural reforms and their economicconsequences is among the most debated topics in contemporary internationalacademic discussions. The study of structural reforms implemented in Armenia’seconomy during the post-independence period shows that fiscal structural reformsoccupy a central place among them. Therefore, this article aims to assess themacroeconomic role and impact of fiscal structural reforms as one of the keydrivers of development in the economy of the Republic of Armenia, a small opentransition economy.For the purpose of evaluating the impact of fiscal structural reforms on keymacroeconomic indicators, this article treats them as policy shocks, therebybringing the analysis into the field of quantitative assessment and estimating theireffects on the most essential macroeconomic variables. To achieve this, tools ofeconometric modeling, as well as statistical, analytical, and other methods, havebeen applied. Specifically, using the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR)model, the article evaluates the effects of reform shocks on tax revenues, publicinvestment, public debt, private sector activity, price stability, and economicgrowth. The estimations are carried out in four directions — through fiscal, real,monetary, and combined macroeconomic models — in order to examine andassess the different transmission channels of reforms.The research results demonstrate that fiscal structural reforms generaterapid and stable positive shifts in fiscal capacity, capital, productivity, and output,while simultaneously contributing to reducing inflation and lowering debt. Thefindings obtained through multifactor models confirm that fiscal structural reformshave a direct and significant impact on revenue collection and the efficiency ofpublic investments, while at the same time gradually reducing public debt. In thereal sector of the economy, reforms stimulate productivity and consumption in theinitial stage, though they reduce private investment. Importantly, the resultsindicate that fiscal structural reforms explain a considerable share of thefluctuations observed in the main macroeconomic indicators, further confirmingtheir central role in shaping key macroeconomic variables.These outcomes emphasize the importance of credibility, consistency, andinstitutional depth of reforms in ensuring macro-fiscal resilience. This studycontributes to the formation and deepening of empirical literature on reform effectiveness by offering an applied methodology for quantifying reform shocksand their macroeconomic transmission mechanisms in small open economies.