Patterns and Drivers of Repression against Crimean Tatars: Evidence from a New Event Dataset (2014–2024)

Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea marked the onset of a systematic repression campaign against the Crimean Tatar population. We introduce CriTaRep v1.0, the first comprehensive, geo-coded event dataset documenting state repression against Crimean Tatars (2014-2024). Drawing on locally sourced materials in Crimean Tatar, Ukrainian, and Russian languages, CriTaRep records n = 690 repression events affecting more than 2,200 individual victims. We inductively identify 22 repression types across three categories: deprivation of liberty, legal and administrative repression, and physical repression. Our data shows a strategic yet adaptive campaign, including a systematic concentration of arbitrary searches on Thursdays, initial physical repression targeting primarily elites, and intensified repression during periods of dissent. Integrating additional disaggregated variables and employing fixed-effects Poisson models, we find that the short-term frequency of repression is significantly driven by protest activity, rather than sanction levels or cultural focal events. Russian authorities respond rapidly and increasingly harshly to dissent, pursuing a dual strategy of immediate protest suppression and long-term deterrence. CriTaRep fills critical gaps in existing datasets and provides new opportunities to study patterns and mechanisms of demographically targeted repression.