Identifying seed fill and health predictors to expand seed‐based restoration of a foundational bunchgrass

Introduction Seed quality is vital for the success of seed‐based ecological restoration programs. Components like viability, germination, and dormancy often receive the most attention. But other aspects of seed quality, like seed fill and infection, are equally important. Understanding the quality of lots destined for restoration and environmental factors or management actions that predict aspects of seed quality enhances outcomes. Objectives This study examined associations between seed fill and infection, environmental factors, and management actions to identify factors that could serve as seed quality predictors in an ecological restoration context. Methods We applied logistic regression to examine the extent to which adult plant habitat type, timing of prescribed fire, and rainfall throughout different growth and reproductive phases influenced wiregrass ( Aristida beyrichiana ) seed quality in terms of empty, filled, and infected seeds. Results When examining only filled and empty seeds, we found that habitat and burn month were strong predictors, while rainfall during the 2 months pre‐fire and rainfall during seed development were adequate predictors of seed fill. However, adding a response variable that accounted for infected seeds, in addition to empty and filled seeds, reduced the statistically significant predictors to habitat and seed development rainfall. Conclusions Our findings reinforce the need for a holistic view of seed quality that goes beyond understanding germination while characterizing key seed quality predictors useful for augmenting seed‐based restoration efforts.