Approach to Studying the Probability of Choosing a Product or Service in a Competitive Environment

The choice of a product or service allows the buyer to satisfy his needs. This may include functional, emotional and social aspects. Sometimes it is difficult to determine the behavior of the consumer and his motives. But it is important for the manufacturer of goods and services, because it allows improve the product, develop new goods and services, and strengthen competitive advantages. In this regard, the development of approaches to studying the probability of choosing a product or service in a competitive environment is a relevant research. The purpose of the article is to research the probability of choosing a product or service in a competitive environment by a consumer in order to satisfy consumer needs and improve the level of service. In the process of conducting the research, analysis was used to conduct theoretical research on the user's choice of goods and services in a competitive environment, synthesis to formulate conclusions and generalizations, probability theory and game theory to substantiate the approach to studying the probability of choosing one product among a number of similar ones, taking into account the similarity of these products, minor differences and features of the situational and reasoned choice of the desired product by the consumer. The article showed the main features of the formation of a probabilistic approach to the choice of a product or service by a consumer. And, on this basis, an approach to the study of such behavior in a competitive environment has been developed. In order to practically implement the approach to the study of the probability of choosing a product or service in a competitive environment, an application in Python was developed using models based on the Bernoulli formula. The authors proposed a mathematical basis and algorithm for the process of determining the reliability of choosing a product or service in a competitive environment. There is an emphasis on the use of Bernoulli's formula in the rich factor model, which describes the choice of a person and the consistency of change in choice under the influx of unimportant factors. A program is presented for the implementation of the proposed approach that can be used by companies producing goods and services that operate in competitive markets to monitor the behavior of associates before choosing one product.