Impact of urban expansion on the temporal adaptation and spatial connectivity of ecological security patterns: insights from a rapidly urbanizing metropolitan area

Abstract Background In response to the growing ecological crises driven by rapid urbanization, nature-based solutions (NBS) have gained increasing attention, particularly from the perspective of coupled social-ecological systems. Understanding the dynamic interactions between urban expansion and ecosystems is essential for promoting sustainable development. This study investigated the spatio-temporal effects of urban expansion on ecological security patterns (ESPs) through the lens of land use. By integrating urban growth simulation with ESP analysis, we examined how urban expansion influenced the temporal adaptation and spatial connectivity of ESPs in the rapidly developing Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA), China. Results From 2000 to 2020, urban land in the WMA expanded rapidly, characterized by a diffusion pattern dominated by edge-expansion. During this period, the ESPs were characterized by an increase in the area of ecological sources, the extension of ecological corridors, and the expansion of pinchpoint and barrier zones. Urban expansion showed limited direct impact on ecological sources but exerted stronger indirect effects through the displacement of cropland. Although projections indicate that the rate of urban expansion may slow and urban form may tend toward coalescence by 2030 under the natural development scenario (NDS), the threat to high-quality ecological sources remains. Moreover, the direct disruption of ecological corridors is expected to persist and intensify in critical zones, undermining spatial connectivity. Conclusions To mitigate the ecological impacts of urban growth, targeted ecological conservation and restoration strategies should be implemented, particularly through ecological source zoning and landscape classification at pinchpoints and barriers. Promoting compact urban forms and coordinating land use strategies across cities are essential to minimizing ecological trade-offs. This study provided practical insights for harmonizing urban growth with ecological conservation in rapidly urbanizing regions.