Methodological proposal for market risk assessment in agriculture: a case study of the Hass avocado

This study addresses agricultural risks as an emerging category in risk assessment and focuses on measuring market risk and its impact on producers and financial entities. Since the lack of measurement can limit producers' decisions and hinder access to financing and planning measures to mitigate or transfer risks, a methodology is proposed and validated to evaluate market risk in the agricultural sector through a case study focused on the Hass avocado in Antioquia. The results lead to quantifying the market risk as high and proposing using three indicators associated with a historical context in avocado prices. Furthermore, risk qualification is similar when exploring risk measurement in a forecasting context due to a downward trend in forecast prices. In conclusion, it is determined that the proposed risk measurement methodology is adaptable to other agricultural systems and makes it possible to identify and understand market risks, tracing the route for making more informed decisions in production and financial leverage of the crop.